Way Too Early 2019 Tony Predictions thread- Page 14

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 2/22/19 at 10:34am

I will be seeing the production next week with my boyfriend, but do people feel Cranston's performance is enough to push Network into "Best New play"? 

[Markie27]

Posted: 2/22/19 at 11:21am

Mike Barrett said: "I will be seeing the production next week with my boyfriend, but do people feel Cranston's performance is enough to push Network into "Best New play"?"

For a nomination? I would believe so.  But for a win definitely not.  It has to go thru The Ferryman and Mockingbird who are competing for that medallion.  It's still a two way race with Ink breathing in at 3rd spot.  So if Gary gets great to rave reviews I think it will compete with Network for that last fourth slot.  Even Hillary might get it if the playwright can capture the magic of his previous work on A Doll's House.  So I guess its an uphill battle for Network.  But Cranston's performance will definitely give it an edge for that fourth spot. 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 2/22/19 at 11:56am

Lead Actor is Damon Daunno, Santino Fontana, Will Chase, and then the remaining two slots could go to Brooks Ashmanskas, Alex Brightman, Reeve Carney, or Will Roland. I think Brooks does have a good chance at a nomination, especially if The Prom gets nominated for Musical, Score, Book, Actress (Leavel).

I don't think NETWORK gets a Best Play nomination. It's the Bryan & Ivo show. Yes, it's a great piece of writing, but it's nearly word-for-word the screenplay from the film. If this was the Best Score category, it wouldn't be eligible. And there's too much other good work this year: Ferryman, Mockingbird, Choir Boy, Ink, some unknowns (Hillary, Gary), AND multiple opportunities to nominate women in a traditionally-male category (Straight White Men, Constitution, Bernhardt).

Jumping ahead to wins: If voters really want to give something to Mockingbird and it's not winning Best Play, Jeff Daniels is the best way to honor it. Voters have already seen Cranston do his "angry man" thing.

Updated On: 2/22/19 at 11:56 AM

[CPannullo]

Posted: 2/22/19 at 12:27pm

I made my way towards Be More Chill and I have to say I thought Stephanie Hsu was amazing as well as George Salazar. I hope they both get featured noms!

[Mike Barrett]

Posted: 2/22/19 at 12:30pm

I can't wait to see Mockinbird as well next week. It should be a great race between The Ferryman and TKAM. They both just seem to be fantastic work. How often do we get 5 nominees? Is it based on the percentage of a vote from the tony voters? Cause last year there was 5, it'd make sense to potentially have 5 this season with how many strong shows there are, especially if Hillary and Clinton can produce. Should be a very exciting awards season for the plays. 

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 2/22/19 at 12:58pm

Mike Barrett said: "How often do we get 5 nominees?"

It all comes down to the closeness of the nomination voting.

From the 2018 Tony rules: "A fifth nominee shall be added to the category in the event that the Accounting Firm determines that the difference in votes between the fourth highest ranked show and the fifth highest ranked show is three votes or less."

Similarly, in the Performance categories, there could be 6 or 7 nominees (instead of 5) if the voting is close: "In the event that there is a two-way or three-way tie for the last slot of nominations in any of the eight established “Best Performance” categories, both or all three of those Actors or Actresses shall be nominated."

[woeisme3]

Posted: 2/22/19 at 1:09pm

I could definitely see 5 nominees for Best Play this season considering all the strong candidates. We got 5 last season which was significantly weaker, and with Ferryman, TKAM, and Choir Boy all getting raves and Gary/Ink/Hillary and Clinton all having good buzz, it seems possible.

I really loved Caitlin Kinnuen in The Prom and hope she gets a nomination, although it's pretty unlikely since Beth Leavel is in leading with her. Right now the person I could see her getting in over is Rebecca Naomi Jones who's singing got some mixed reviews in Oklahoma, but that production is so acclaimed I think they'll put her in.

[dollyfan]

Posted: 2/25/19 at 10:07am

Has anyone seen "Kiss Me, Kate!" yet? Thoughts on Kelli, Stephanie, Corbin, and Will's odds?

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 2/25/19 at 11:38am

Dollyfan, the consensus so far seems to be: Will Chase is the best part of the production, and Kelli sounds good but her performance needs to be much broader. And Stephanie and Corbin are fun. So, both leads will probably get nominated because it's a weak year in the Best Actress field, and maaybe Stephanie or Corbin will break through in Featured, but it seems like the Tony is all but engraved with SJB's name at this point.

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 2/25/19 at 11:42am

“I really loved Caitlin Kinnuen in The Prom and hope she gets a nomination, although it's pretty unlikely since Beth Leavel is in leading with her. Right now the person I could see her getting in over is Rebecca Naomi Jones who's singing got some mixed reviews in Oklahoma, but that production is so acclaimed I think they'll put her in.”

Who are your other 4 nominees in this case? I could see them both getting in with SJB, Kelli O’Hara and Beth Leavel 

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 2/25/19 at 12:11pm

For some less discussed tonys:

Score

Hadestown (W)

The Prom

Tootsie

Be More Chill

 

Book

Tootsie

The Prom

Hadestown

(Be More Chill) very unsure about this but I have no idea what else could get this spot

 

Best Direction

Oklahoma! (W)

Hadestown

The Prom

Tootsie

Kiss Me, Kate!

 

Choreography

Oklahoma!

Kiss Me, Kate!

Cher Show

The Prom

Ain’t Too Proud

 

Scenic Design

Beetlejuice

Tootsie

(Not sure what else. It’s not the best season for scenic. I haven’t seen the Kiss Me, Kate! sets yet. Maybe Be More Chill?)

 

Costumes

The Cher Show (w)

Kiss Me, Kate!

(Not sure what else. Hadestown?)

 

Orchestrations

Oklahoma (W)

Hadestown

Tootsie

The Prom

[woeisme3]

Posted: 2/25/19 at 12:15pm

Rogerdellibovi said: "“I really loved Caitlin Kinnuen in The Prom and hope she gets a nomination, although it's pretty unlikely since Beth Leavel is in leading with her. Right now the person I could see her getting in over is Rebecca Naomi Jones who's singing got some mixed reviews in Oklahoma, but that production is so acclaimed I think they'll put her in.”

Who are your other 4 nominees in this case? I could see them both getting in with SJB, Kelli O’Hara and Beth Leavel"

Eva Noblezada will probably get in for Hadestown, especially if it’s the favorite (which it seems to be).

[SomethingPeculiar]

Posted: 2/25/19 at 1:57pm

Caitlin will not be nominated, especially next to Beth, Stephanie, Rebecca, Eva, and Kelli. She's also got the smallest role of any of those actresses...I'm not sure why she was placed in Lead.

[theaterlyfe19]

Posted: 2/26/19 at 7:39am

Do we think it's finally SJB's time to win for Cher?

[boywonder14]

Posted: 2/28/19 at 9:27pm

Need some guidance in narrowing down some of these musical categories. Not sure who will end up in certain placements and I know I'm missing a ton of names, but maybe you all can help me out here -

 

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Patrick Page, Hadestown (LOCK, winner)

Christopher Sieber, The Prom (LOCK)

George Salazar, Be More Chill

Jarrod Spector, The Cher Show (hearing he is a scene stealer, LOCK???)

Jeremy Pope, Ain't Too Proud (proper category placement?)

Ephraim Sykes, Ain't Too Proud (proper category placement?)

Patrick Vaill, Oklahoma!

John Behlman, Tootsie

Corbin Bleu, Kiss Me, Kate

Michael Campayno, The Cher Show

 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Amber Gray, Hadestown (LOCK, winner)

Angie Schworer, The Prom (LOCK)

Mary Testa, Oklahoma!

Leslie Kritzer, Beetlejuice

Micaela Diamond, The Cher Show

Isabelle McCalla, The Prom

Ali Stroker, Oklahoma!

Stephanie Styles, Kiss Me, Kate

Teal Wicks, The Cher Show

Lilli Cooper, Tootsie

Sara Stiles, Tootsie

Orfeh, Pretty Woman

Stephanie Hsu, Be More Chill

- this one seems to be most up in the air, but the featured ones usually are because there are so many people eligible. Please give me thoughts.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

Santino Fontana, Tootsie (LOCK, winner)

Will Chase, Kiss Me, Kate (LOCK)

Brooks Ashmanskas, The Prom (LOCK)

Damon Duanno, Oklahoma! (close to a LOCK in my opinion)

Derrick Baskin, Ain't Too Proud (LOCK)

Alex Brightman, Beetlejuice

Reeve Carney, Hadestown

Will Roland, Be More Chill

Andy Karl, Pretty Woman

- not a lot of wiggle room in that top 5, though I guess anyone could easily fall away, especially if Hadestown lands everywhere or if people rally around Alex Brightman or Andy Karl. Definitely Santino's to lose. 

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

Stephanie J. Block, The Cher Show (LOCK, winner)

Kelli O'Hara, Kiss Me, Kate (LOCK)

Beth Leavel, The Prom (LOCK)

Eva Noblezada, Hadestown 

Rebecca Naomi Jones, Oklahoma!

Sophia Ann Caruso, Beetlejuice

Caitlin Kinnunen, The Prom

Samantha Barks, Pretty Woman

Christiani Pitts, King Kong

- Is anyone else eligible here? I feel like I must be missing a name or two, but I'm not sure who is leading in some of these productions or what some specific Tony rulings have been. Also, the 3 vets in the category will definitely get 3 spots, so the rest are duking it out for the last 2.

 

Best Musical

Hadestown (LOCK, winner)

Tootsie

Ain't Too Proud (LOCK)

The Prom

Beetlejuice

The Cher Show

Head Over Heels

Gettin' the Band Back Together

Be More Chill

Pretty Woman

- I feel pretty strongly, like most others on this message thread, that it will be Hadestown, Tootsie, Ain't Too Proud, and The Prom as the 4.

[ElphabaGoodman]

Posted: 2/28/19 at 9:32pm

No disrespect to her, but I wouldn’t consider Angie Schworer a lock by any means. Until seeing this post, it never even occurred to me that she’d be considered. 

 

boywonder14 said: "Need some guidance in narrowing down some of these musical categories. Not sure who will end up in certain placements and I know I'm missing a ton of names, but maybe you all can help me out here -



Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Patrick Page,Hadestown(LOCK, winner)

Christopher Sieber, The Prom(LOCK)

George Salazar, Be More Chill

Jarrod Spector, The Cher Show(hearing he is a scene stealer, LOCK???)

Jeremy Pope, Ain't Too Proud (proper category placement?)

Ephraim Sykes, Ain't Too Proud(proper category placement?)

Patrick Vaill, Oklahoma!

John Behlman, Tootsie

Corbin Bleu, Kiss Me, Kate

Michael Campayno, The Cher Show



Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Amber Gray, Hadestown (LOCK, winner)

Angie Schworer, The Prom (LOCK)

Mary Testa, Oklahoma!

Leslie Kritzer, Beetlejuice

Micaela Diamond, The Cher Show

Isabelle McCalla, The Prom

Ali Stroker, Oklahoma!

Stephanie Styles, Kiss Me, Kate

Teal Wicks, The Cher Show

Lilli Cooper, Tootsie

Sara Stiles, Tootsie

Orfeh, Pretty Woman

Stephanie Hsu, Be More Chill

- this one seems to be most up in the air, but the featured ones usually are because there are so many people eligible. Please give me thoughts.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

Santino Fontana, Tootsie (LOCK, winner)

Will Chase, Kiss Me, Kate (LOCK)

Brooks Ashmanskas, The Prom (LOCK)

Damon Duanno, Oklahoma! (close to a LOCK in my opinion)

Derrick Baskin, Ain't Too Proud (LOCK)

Alex Brightman, Beetlejuice

Reeve Carney, Hadestown

Will Roland, Be More Chill

Andy Karl, Pretty Woman

- not a lot of wiggle room in that top 5, though I guess anyone could easily fall away, especially if Hadestown lands everywhere or if people rally around Alex Brightman or Andy Karl. Definitely Santino's to lose.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

Stephanie J. Block, The Cher Show (LOCK, winner)

Kelli O'Hara, Kiss Me, Kate (LOCK)

Beth Leavel, The Prom (LOCK)

Eva Noblezada, Hadestown

Rebecca Naomi Jones, Oklahoma!

Sophia Ann Caruso, Beetlejuice

Caitlin Kinnunen, The Prom

Samantha Barks, Pretty Woman

Christiani Pitts, King Kong

- Is anyone else eligible here? I feel like I must be missing a name or two, but I'm not sure who is leading in some of these productions or what some specific Tony rulings have been. Also, the 3 vets in the category will definitely get 3 spots, so the rest are duking it out for the last 2.



Best Musical

Hadestown (LOCK, winner)

Tootsie

Ain't Too Proud (LOCK)

The Prom

Beetlejuice

The Cher Show

Head Over Heels

Gettin' the Band Back Together

Be More Chill

Pretty Woman

- I feel pretty strongly, like most others on this message thread, that it will be Hadestown, Tootsie, Ain't Too Proud, and The Prom as the 4."

 

[ACL2006]

Posted: 2/28/19 at 9:43pm

The only Best Musical locks I'd have are Hadestown & Tootsie. The other nominees are between The Prom, The Cher Show, Beetlejuice & Be More Chill. Don't think Ain't Too Proud gets a nomination.

[\_(•_•)_/]

Posted: 2/28/19 at 9:47pm

Not one single person from the prom is a lock lol. The only acting nomination they will recieve is beth, and even that is iffy.

[maya_40]

Posted: 2/28/19 at 10:15pm

I think it is a general tragedy that anyone not into the original cast of a show is ignored, (not eligible ) when sometimes the second  and third casts and even beyond boast strong actors that were chosen especially on how they fit the role, not for sheer star factor. As an example, Ben Platt gave an extraordinarily emotional performance in DEH, but acting can’t cover up the fact you are an adult playing a teenager. The current Evan, Andrew, gives such an emotional and heart wrenching performance and is so real because he is 17. I just wish non OG casts got more love. I know that replacements aren’t eligible, but why isn’t there a category? Not all OG casts are better than the current ones

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 2/28/19 at 10:17pm

iirc they did try that category one year but not enough people got nominated so then they got rid of it

There might be more to it but that's just what I remember right now, and I would agree that while I would want these people to be recognized, there isn't always a consistent set of replacements every year good enough to warrant another award.

[ethan231h]

Posted: 2/28/19 at 10:32pm

I think Beth Leavel is definitely a lock.

[Rogerdellibovi]

Posted: 2/28/19 at 10:48pm

Not sure about a lot of your locks. Angie might barely get in but by no means a lock and I personally don’t think she will. You can probably get rid of Michael Campayno, Isabelle McCalla, Teal Wicks, Orfeh, Stephane Hsu, Samantha Barks, Christiani Pitts. The 

I agree with your leading actor top five and am wondering why you consider Ain’t Too Proud a lock? I think the definite two are tootsie and hadestown. 

Hope this helped narrow things down a little. 

 

boywonder14 said: "Need some guidance in narrowing down some of these musical categories. Not sure who will end up in certain placements and I know I'm missing a ton of names, but maybe you all can help me out here -



Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Patrick Page,Hadestown(LOCK, winner)

Christopher Sieber, The Prom(LOCK)

George Salazar, Be More Chill

Jarrod Spector, The Cher Show(hearing he is a scene stealer, LOCK???)

Jeremy Pope, Ain't Too Proud (proper category placement?)

Ephraim Sykes, Ain't Too Proud(proper category placement?)

Patrick Vaill, Oklahoma!

John Behlman, Tootsie

Corbin Bleu, Kiss Me, Kate

Michael Campayno, The Cher Show



Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Amber Gray, Hadestown (LOCK, winner)

Angie Schworer, The Prom (LOCK)

Mary Testa, Oklahoma!

Leslie Kritzer, Beetlejuice

Micaela Diamond, The Cher Show

Isabelle McCalla, The Prom

Ali Stroker, Oklahoma!

Stephanie Styles, Kiss Me, Kate

Teal Wicks, The Cher Show

Lilli Cooper, Tootsie

Sara Stiles, Tootsie

Orfeh, Pretty Woman

Stephanie Hsu, Be More Chill

- this one seems to be most up in the air, but the featured ones usually are because there are so many people eligible. Please give me thoughts.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

Santino Fontana, Tootsie (LOCK, winner)

Will Chase, Kiss Me, Kate (LOCK)

Brooks Ashmanskas, The Prom (LOCK)

Damon Duanno, Oklahoma! (close to a LOCK in my opinion)

Derrick Baskin, Ain't Too Proud (LOCK)

Alex Brightman, Beetlejuice

Reeve Carney, Hadestown

Will Roland, Be More Chill

Andy Karl, Pretty Woman

- not a lot of wiggle room in that top 5, though I guess anyone could easily fall away, especially if Hadestown lands everywhere or if people rally around Alex Brightman or Andy Karl. Definitely Santino's to lose.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical

Stephanie J. Block, The Cher Show (LOCK, winner)

Kelli O'Hara, Kiss Me, Kate (LOCK)

Beth Leavel, The Prom (LOCK)

Eva Noblezada, Hadestown

Rebecca Naomi Jones, Oklahoma!

Sophia Ann Caruso, Beetlejuice

Caitlin Kinnunen, The Prom

Samantha Barks, Pretty Woman

Christiani Pitts, King Kong

- Is anyone else eligible here? I feel like I must be missing a name or two, but I'm not sure who is leading in some of these productions or what some specific Tony rulings have been. Also, the 3 vets in the category will definitely get 3 spots, so the rest are duking it out for the last 2.



Best Musical

Hadestown (LOCK, winner)

Tootsie

Ain't Too Proud (LOCK)

The Prom

Beetlejuice

The Cher Show

Head Over Heels

Gettin' the Band Back Together

Be More Chill

Pretty Woman

- I feel pretty strongly, like most others on this message thread, that it will be Hadestown, Tootsie, Ain't Too Proud, and The Prom as the 4."

 

[Hamilfan2]

Posted: 3/1/19 at 1:57pm

These would be my picks personally:


Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Patrick Page, Hadestown (winner)

George Salazar, Be More Chill

Jarrod Spector, The Cher Show

Jeremy Pope, Ain't Too Proud

Corbin Bleu, Kiss Me, Kate



Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Amber Gray, Hadestown (winner)

Angie Schworer, The Prom

Mary Testa, Oklahoma!

Stephanie Styles, Kiss Me, Kate

Sara Stiles, Tootsie


Best Leading Actor in a Musical

Santino Fontana, Tootsie (winner)

Will Chase, Kiss Me, Kate

Brooks Ashmanskas, The Prom

Damon Duanno, Oklahoma!

Derrick Baskin, Ain't Too Proud



Best Leading Actress in a Musical

Stephanie J. Block, The Cher Show (winner)

Kelli O'Hara, Kiss Me, Kate

Beth Leavel, The Prom

Eva Noblezada, Hadestown

Lilli Cooper, Tootsie
 


Best Musical

Hadestown (winner)

Tootsie

Ain't Too Proud

The Prom

 

[woeisme3]

Posted: 3/1/19 at 2:33pm

I really don’t think the nominations will give Ain’t Too Proud a lot of love- there’s been a growing backlash against jukebox musicals, the last one to get into Best Musical was Beautiful five years ago. Especially because the out of town reviews aren’t super positive.

I think the last best musical slot will probably be Be More Chill, as much as it pains me. The buzz on it is turning positive and it’s at least original. I think the nominations will be led by Hadestown, Tootsie, The Prom, and Oklahoma, though.

[Madison7]

Posted: 3/1/19 at 2:44pm

woeisme3 said: "I really don’t think the nominations will give Ain’t Too Proud a lot of love- there’s been a growing backlash against jukebox musicals, the last one to get into Best Musical was Beautiful five years ago. Especially because the out of town reviews aren’t super positive.

I think the last best musical slot will probably be Be More Chill, as much as it pains me. The buzz on it is turning positive and it’s at least original. I think the nominations will be led by Hadestown, Tootsie, The Prom, and Oklahoma, though." 

Be More Chill is not an original musical, it was based on a book by author Ned Vizzini