Actress Predictions - 2024 Tonys- Page 2

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 3/19/24 at 6:50am

quizking101 said: "I’m hanging my hat on Featured Actress - Play is Kara Young’s to lose. This is going to be her third nomination in a row in this category and I cannot imagine they aren’t going to recognize her for what was an electric performance.

Additionally, it would make her:

- the fourth actress to be nominated for Tonys in three consecutive years (Chita Rivera, Martha Plimpton, and Judith Light)

- the second actress to be nominated in that category (as well as the same category)three times in a row(after Judith Light)

- the first African American woman to be nominated three times in a row in ANYcategory."

She was turning in a career best in Purlie Victorious. I want her to take it more than anyone else this year...but I'm afraid of the usual "closed show" syndrome. When is the last time an actress took this award for a closed show? Annaleigh in 2015?

[quizking101]

Posted: 3/19/24 at 8:29am

Actually, Phylicia Rashad (in an upset) for SKELETON CREW in 2022 and then Lois Smith for THE INHERITANCE the year before.

 Plus, PV has an Audible release (TBD) and the PBS airing (May 24th) that would help bring the show back into public consciousness 

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 3/19/24 at 8:53am

quizking101 said: "Actually, Phylicia Rashad (in an upset) for SKELETON CREW in 2022 and then Lois Smith for THE INHERITANCE the year before.

Plus, PV has an Audible release (TBD) and the PBS airing (May 24th) that would help bring the show back into public consciousness"

Oh true! (Not sure I would say Lois Smith counts if we’re looking at circumstances, but I had forgotten Rashad completely) 

[quizking101]

Posted: 3/19/24 at 9:53am

Falsettolands said: "quizking101 said: "Actually, Phylicia Rashad (in an upset) for SKELETON CREW in 2022 and then Lois Smith for THE INHERITANCE the year before.

Plus, PV has an Audible release (TBD) and the PBS airing (May 24th) that would help bring the show back into public consciousness"

Oh true! (Not sure I would say Lois Smith counts if we’re looking at circumstances, but I had forgotten Rashad completely)"

I actually would say it counts because THE INHERITANCE was scheduled to close early on March 15th and then the pandemic shut down the show just a few days before that. Had the awards been held that year and in June, it’ would count. (The only other mitigating factor would’ve been any other performances that would’ve potentially in contention)

[rbfost]

Posted: 3/19/24 at 10:01am

Sheesh, these musical categories are tough…I’m gonna count on a tie in at least one of them…here’s my thoughts so far. I’ve chosen six in each bc it’s possible with ties! We could even end up with seven nominees in some categories!

Lead Actress (Musical)

• Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
• Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen
• Eva Noblezada, The Great Gatsby
• Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine & Roses
• Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
• Gayle Rankin, Cabaret

Featured Actress (Musical)

• Shoshana Bean, Hell’s Kitchen
• Amber Iman, Lempicka
• Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen
• Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
• Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret
• Joy Woods, The Notebook

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/19/24 at 11:17am

quizking101 said: "I’m hanging my hat on Featured Actress - Play is Kara Young’s to lose. This is going to be her third nomination in a row in this category and I cannot imagine they aren’t going to recognize her for what was an electric performance.

Additionally, it would make her:

- the fourth actress to be nominated for Tonys in three consecutive years (Chita Rivera, Martha Plimpton, and Judith Light)

- the second actress to be nominated in that category (as well as the same category)three times in a row(after Judith Light)

- the first African American woman to be nominated three times in a row in ANYcategory."

Question: do you know if Metcalf's noms between 2016-19 is the longest streak for nominations that an actor ever received?

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/19/24 at 11:26am

I would say this is an extremely difficult year to predict, I will go as follow in order of likelihood of happening:

- Lead Actress in a Musical:

• Kelli O’Hara - Days of Wine & Roses
• Gayle Rankin, Cabaret
• Eden Espinosa - Lempicka
• Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen
• Arielle Jacobs - Here Lies Love

RU: Shaina Taub, Suffs

- Featured Actress in a Musical:

• Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
• Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret
• Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
• Shoshana Bean, Hell’s Kitchen
• Jenn Colella or Grace McLean, Suffs

RU: Alison Luff, The Who's Tommy

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 3/19/24 at 1:49pm

Falsettolands said: "quizking101 said: "I’m hanging my hat on Featured Actress - Play is Kara Young’s to lose. This is going to be her third nomination in a row in this category and I cannot imagine they aren’t going to recognize her for what was an electric performance.

Additionally, it would make her:

- the fourth actress to be nominated for Tonys in three consecutive years (Chita Rivera, Martha Plimpton, and Judith Light)

- the second actress to be nominated in that category (as well as the same category)three times in a row(after Judith Light)

- the first African American woman to be nominated three times in a row in ANYcategory."

She was turning in a career best in Purlie Victorious. I want her to take it more than anyone else this year...but I'm afraid of the usual "closed show" syndrome. When is the last time an actress took this award for a closed show? Annaleigh in 2015?"

For whatever reason, the Tonys can remember closed play performances far better than closed musical performances. If my count is correct, since 2000, the play featured categories have gone to closed shows 10 times (8 if you throw out 2020) and the musical featured categories have gone to closed shows zero times. So I wouldn't say Purlie's closing necessarily means anything. If another performance comes along in the next month that blows everyone away, then the closed show status may start to be a factor. But as of now, I still think she's the solid frontrunner.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 3/20/24 at 6:12pm

Falsettolands said: "bjh2114 said: "Falsettolands said: "While I recognize many on this board are mixed about the performances themselves, I think we should be prepared that Merrily may likely swipe three Best Featured Actress nominations (Mendez, Clarke, and Brown)

It's the juggernaut, folks."

Katie Rose Clarke is not getting nominated for that performance lol"


Looks like you just guaranteed it. That’s on you!"

I mean... it's not a good performance in a category with a good number of options.

[quizking101]

Posted: 3/20/24 at 6:17pm

MadsonMelo said: "quizking101 said: "I’m hanging my hat on Featured Actress - Play is Kara Young’s to lose. This is going to be her third nomination in a row in this category and I cannot imagine they aren’t going to recognize her for what was an electric performance.

Additionally, it would make her:

- the fourth actress to be nominated for Tonys in three consecutive years (Chita Rivera, Martha Plimpton, and Judith Light)

- the second actress to be nominated in that category (as well as the same category)three times in a row(after Judith Light)

- the first African American woman to be nominated three times in a row in ANYcategory."

Question: do you know if Metcalf's noms between 2016-19 is the longest streak for nominations that an actor ever received?"

I completely forgot about her. I believe she does hold the record

[NeilLabutefan]

Posted: 3/23/24 at 6:42pm

Updated On: 3/23/24 at 06:42 PM

[bwaylvsong1]

Posted: 3/23/24 at 7:03pm

I can’t imagine Kritzer not getting nominated.  O’Hara and Mendez will also likely be nominated, but their relatively recent wins could work against them winning (ie neither of them is overdue for a win).

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 3/23/24 at 7:27pm

bwaylvsong1 said: "I can’t imagine Kritzer not getting nominated. O’Hara and Mendez will also likely be nominated, but theirrelatively recent wins could work against them winning (ie neither of them is overdue for a win)."

While I agree that O’Hara and Mendez will be nominated, historically the committee does not give Best Actress in a Musical to a performance in a closed show, so O’Hara is out- absolutely nothing to do with her recently winning.

and Mendez’ consistent absences will only hurt her chances of winning, coupled with the fact that Merrily can and very will likely receive multiple nominations in this category which has historically canceled out wins.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 3/23/24 at 7:56pm

Falsettolands said: "and Mendez’ consistent absences will only hurt her chances of winning, coupled with the fact that Merrily can and very will likely receive multiple nominations in this category which has historically canceled out wins."

Her absences may hurt, but the multiple nominations from the same show hasn't really hurt in this category recently. Prior to last year, it had been 4 straight years of the winner being up against someone else from their show. And she's clearly the top choice from the show--the multiple nominees from the same show factor really only comes into play when the actresses will more evenly split votes among supporters of the show (i.e. Fun Home). With Merrily, Mendez is the clear standout among the featured actresses.

[aislestorm2]

Posted: 3/23/24 at 8:51pm

Is everyone forgetting Betsy Aidem?

[Robbie2]

Posted: 3/24/24 at 4:55pm

Lead Actress (Musical)

• Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
• Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen
• Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine & Roses
• Gayle Rankin, Cabaret
• Shaina Taub, Suffs

Updated On: 3/24/24 at 04:55 PM

[Robbie2]

Posted: 3/24/24 at 6:48pm

Robbie2 said: "Lead Actress (Musical) ''

• Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
• Maleah Joi Moon, Hell’s Kitchen
• Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine & Roses
• Gayle Rankin, Cabaret
• Shaina Taub, Suffs

Featured Actress (Musical)

• Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
• Amber Iman, Lempicka
• Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen
• Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
• Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret
• Leslie Kritzer, Spamalot 

Updated On: 3/24/24 at 06:48 PM

[akhoya87]

Posted: 3/24/24 at 6:58pm

It'll be really interesting to see how the Tony eligibility committee rules on performers from The Notebook.  Following the Tony Shalhoub/Band's Visit precedent, I think there's a case to be made that Maryann is really the lead, despite the fact that she sings for all of what, 60 seconds?  (The singing comment is not meant to be glib -- I thoroughly enjoyed Maryann's performance, both in Chicago and on Broadway, even though I have mixed feelings about the show more generally.)  

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 3/24/24 at 7:27pm

akhoya87 said: "It'll be really interesting to see how the Tony eligibility committee rules on performers fromThe Notebook. Following the Tony Shalhoub/Band's Visit precedent, I think there's a case to be made that Maryann is really the lead, despite the fact that she sings for all of what, 60 seconds? (The singing comment is not meant to be glib -- I thoroughly enjoyed Maryann's performance, both in Chicago and on Broadway, even though I have mixed feelings about the show more generally.)"

(this is only based in my opinion and what I see when looking at the other nominees) I feel like if they're strategic and they leave Maryann in Featured then she will be a locked win for Best Featured Actress (and will be the only thing they win that night)

If they petition to put her in lead...I don't see her winning.

A ballsy thing to say, but this is the type of featured performance that can really sweep every circuit if they let it.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/25/24 at 2:09am

I would be beyond shooked if Maryann wins Featured over Lindsay Mendez or Bebe Neuwirth. I truly believe that the only acting Award not going to Cabaret/Merrily is Actress and even that Im not sure

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 3/25/24 at 9:42am

MadsonMelo said: "I would be beyond shooked if Maryann wins Featured over Lindsay Mendez or Bebe Neuwirth. I truly believe that the only acting Award not going to Cabaret/Merrily is Actress and even that Im not sure"

That’s definitely plausible, but I’m putting my eggs in the Plunkett basket. Mendez’ attendance has incinerated her chances of winning. I totally see a world where Bebe takes it, but Plunkett’s going to be my prediction all the way to awards day. if they keep her in Featured.

Updated On: 3/25/24 at 09:42 AM

[east side story]

Posted: 3/25/24 at 10:00am

This incoming production of Cabaret pays closer attention to the Schneider/Schultz love affair, adding some lighter moments before the events of Act II. These playful interactions truly color their relationship a lot more than most productions that keep it grey and doomed.  The result only makes the second Act all the more devastating, so my money is absolutely on Neuwirth. If she can land it, she will win #3.

[akhoya87]

Posted: 4/19/24 at 3:53pm

The lead and featured races just got a lot more interesting.

Updated On: 4/19/24 at 03:53 PM

[Falsettolands]

Posted: 4/19/24 at 4:11pm

akhoya87 said: "The lead and featured races just got a lot more interesting."

I actually think all this did is locked a few categories shut. I feel confident that Bebe’s got Featured Musical and Paulson’s got Actress Play.

I loved Plunkett’s performance but I don’t believe she’s a strong contender in Lead. She’ll pull the nomination, though.

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 4/19/24 at 5:01pm

I would love nothing more than for Bebe to win for featured actress. It's a truly heart-wrenching and beautiful performance.