LYLS3637 said: "So let's hear it, if Biden isn't the answer, who is?"
I'm not convinced that Dems have the answer right now. I'm not convinced at all that Trump wont take a second term. My personal choice, at this point, is Warren/Buttigieg. But I'm pretty sure that if she wins the primary, all we'll hear for the next year is endless chants of "Pocahontas" from Trump's rallies. And it will dominate everything else so that nothing she's says will get any attention or traction.
Art has a double face, of expression and illusion.
2016 proved that whatever you thought about predictions was wrong. So I’m not going to predict anything, just give my gut feeling. And that is that of everyone who has announced their candidacy so far, Joe Biden is the only person who can stand next to Donald trump on a debate stage and walk away a champ. He is the only one who can look at trump on national television and tell him to shut the f*ck up. Trump is absolutely no match for Biden when they’re face to face and no matter what you think of him right now, 19 months before the election, is what can push him over the edge.
It’s disheartening and SCARY that so many Dems and “Dems” are so focused on his age and his race and not his ability to save this country. These people would rather garner some meaningless “woke votes” via likes on social media for calling out his race, than actually work to keep this pseudo-dictator out of office for another four years and appointing AT LEAST one other seat to the SCOTUS, thereby changing America for the worse for at least the rest of their lifetimes. But hey, at least they got three likes on a post about white people running for President.
"A month ago I thought Biden was our best hope. What a difference a few weeks makes. I think the damage is already done with allegations of his violations of women’s personal boundaries. (I’ll save my very conflicted feelings about that for another day). Liberals will likely never vote en masse for a candidate with such accusations circling around him."
What a difference a few decades make...lol. During the height of the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings, I vividly recall older men in my family and a few men much my senior at work suggesting that Anita Hill was simply "too unsightly" for a man of Thomas' stature to pursue. One even suggested that Hill should have been thankful that any male expressed interest in her because he didn't consider her a "looker". For the record, I always found her attractive and think that she's aged gracefully, not that their thoughts or mine on her looks matter much. There are a few women in my circle who've never forgiven Biden for what they characterize as his unbridled willingness to discredit Hill to take one for the team. How dare she upset the natural order. O tempora o mores
Regarding the allegations of violation of personal space, blah, blah, blah...I'll wrap this up with javero's four maxims:
(1) allegations are just that...allegations
(2) there is no perfect person 35 years of age or above in the US
(2) there is no Utopia on this earth, Bernie and AOC
(3) politics is about compromise
(4) Voters 50 years of age or older actually fuggin' vote
Nota Bene: 2024 will be the year of Nimrata "Nikki" Haley so let's not fuggup this election!
Biden’s first day fundraising numbers were just released. He raised more on his first day than Bernie (or anyone) did with the average donation being under $200. That’s HUGE for Biden and shows that he most definitely has the support of the small donors he would desperately need to have a successful run.
Thanks to that video, I've shed a bucket of tears for two days now. I tend to choke up as soon as I hear the bit about "an aberrant moment in time". The video was all the affirmation I need. Thanks Uncle Joe for reassuring me at least that this too shall pass. May your days be many and your troubles be few!
LYLS3637 said: "You have the former Vice President and the runner up from the last cyclemustering (at most!) an average of 25% a piece in both national and early state polling. Granted, it's 10 months before a single vote is cast, but that's incredibly indicative of an engaged base of voters who want someone else.
You do realize that 25% is a huge market share when consumers choose between that many options, right?
For similar reasons, this would appear to have all the ingredients for a brokered convention.
javero said: "Thanks to that video, I've shed a bucket of tears for two days now. I tend to choke up as soon as I hear the bit about "an aberrant moment in time". The video was all the affirmation I need. Thanks Uncle Joe for reassuring me at least that this too shall pass. May your days be many and your troubles be few!"
+1 for me! I was undecided up until his announcement, first leaning towards Mayor Pete but then going back to Warren (since she's the only outspoken candidate who is pushing for impeachment, and really understands what impeachment is and how important that T-rump gets impeached not matter the results). Then I saw Biden's announcement, and I know he's the one.
I am very disappointed that not more Democratic candidates have stood with Warren for impeachment (Castro is with her, and Harris...most of the others - including Pete - won't commit to a 'yes'.
henrikegerman said: "LYLS3637 said: "You have the former Vice President and the runner up from the last cyclemustering (at most!) an average of 25% a piece in both national and early state polling. Granted, it's 10 months before a single vote is cast, but that's incredibly indicative of an engaged base of voters who want someone else.
You do realize that 25% is a huge market sharewhen consumers choose between that many options, right?
For similar reasons, this would appear to have all the ingredients for a brokered convention."
Based on their positions within the Democratic Party nationally, Biden and Sanders should have at least 2/3 of the vote between them right now. It's telling that only a few months ago, an average of 55-59% of Democratic primary voters chose "Someone entirely new/different" as their preferred candidate. That's not a great sign for the former Vice President and the 2016 runner up, especially since they both have nearly 100% name ID.
Jordan Catalano said: "It’s way too early to read anything into polls about anyone. Just remember where Obama was at this point in 2007."
Of course. Polling right now is largely based on name recognition. But the difference between now and 2007 is that in the 2008 cycle, there was no natural narrative of a candidate. Gore and Kerry slammed the door on any potential runs in late 2006 and the runner up in 2004 was Edwards who only received 13% of the delegates. With the former VP and the 2016 runner up who garnered 46% of the pledged delegates, a natural narrative exists around those two, and based on where they've been nationally, it should bother them that over half of Democratic voters want "someone new"...
We'll see what happens when voters start paying attention this Fall. I'm hoping that helps Biden's cause...
ErikJ972 said: "Kamala Harris would DESTROY Trump on a debate stage."
She would. However, Kamala reads very lawyerly and not personable. I think she's a very smart woman and am glad she's my Senator but I don't think she has the charisma to beat Trump . While that shouldn't matter in these things, the reality is it does.
I love Kamala but I do not think it will be a year for a woman, a gay man or a person of color. Trump has set us back too far. So Biden I believe is the only one who can beat him. I just want someone to beat Trump and then any great thing that happens after that will be gravy.
I'm with Wildcard & SmoothLover. I suspect that "optics" will play a huge role in the next general election. Trump must face an adversary who can square off against him eye-to-eye and exude strength on any debate stage. Trump's lurking behind Hillary on the debate stage the last time out was a deliberate attempt on his part to intimidate her. He was subliminally reminding her and his base that she couldn't escape his shadow. He was later captured looming over wife Melania as she cast her ballot at the polls. He is a man who expects women to serve him in some way and to always bring up the rear. Daughter Ivanka alone seems to be his point of vulnerability.
Optically, only Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and possibly Bernie Sanders, are a good match up. They're his peers age-wise which works in their favor. Warren has reached the point in her career and personal life where she no longer gives a shaite what men like Trump think of her competence, appearance, or probity. In manner and demeanor, Trump will dismiss Mayor Pete, Beto, and Corey as his illegitimate kids and Kamala, Amy, and Kirsten as Miss Universe rejects who refused to allow him in their pants. That will likely be his base's take away at least.
Perhaps a few of you will be disgusted by my post but it's Trump at issue here.
This is only the second presidential election in which I’ve been old enough to vote. I enthusiastically voted for Hillary in the primary and the general, I thought she was the right person for the job and the historicity of her candidacy appealed to me. Like everyone else I was certain she would win— how could she not? It’s so important to me that Trump is removed from office in 2020. But I don’t take much stock in who polls say is most likely to beat him. I also want to vote for someone who is inspiring and accomplished, someone who will win in 2020 and 2024. So you know me— I’m a 24 year old college educated gay man working minimum wage in Appalachia. So my vote isn’t going to matter in the general but I’m going to vote anyway. I think I’m decently informed, not as much as some. I don’t watch cable news anymore (I don’t have cable). I listen to Pod Save the World and read the headlines on my Twitter feed and the Politics subreddit. I know the gist of most things but not the finer details. I’m devastated at the direction my country has taken. I want a decisive victory. I want the course of this country to change, for good.
I’ve been lukewarm on Biden since he announced his campaign. I feel like his time was 2016, and even then I would have voted for Hillary Clinton in the primary over him. Furthermore, I don’t find him inspiring or charismatic. At best, he is Obama’s funny second banana. But I remember the videos and photos of him when he was swearing in new congressmen and he was grossly inappropriate and handsy. I think of him presiding over Anita Hill’s testimony and feel uncomfortable. And I just watched a video (https://youtu.be/YD7NYwpbGOk) that paints Biden as a neo-Republican with many racially insensitive stances on policies and legislation and I feel more torn on Biden than ever. I know Hillary was often attacked on similar grounds, often unfairly so. Is this video similarly dishonest? Even so— does Biden not have many of the same weaknesses as Hillary— principally, a long, easily attacked record? How do you explain some of those things in Biden’s record? At this moment, I cannot imagine myself voting for Biden in the primary.
I don’t like Bernie. Admittedly, I have some bad feelings left over from the 2016 campaign. Even though he has a long record of supporting progressive causes, I don’t feel he’s been a particularly effective proponent of them until he burst out on the scene in 2015/6. I also don’t trust him to take gun control seriously. At this point, I cannot see myself seriously voting for Sanders in a primary.
I like Elizabeth Warren a lot. Her personality and the way she speaks to people appeal to me. She’s a relative newcomer to politics but seems to have been very effective in her short time in Washington. She seems authentic and real. I trust she can do what’s best for the country and its citizen. I like that she’s more progressive than Biden, as well. She’s also 6-7 years younger than the other Democratic front runners and, although it feels ridiculous saying this about a 70 year old woman, feel relatively youthful. As of this moment, I believe Warren is my candidate in the primary.
The biggest drawback is this Native American heritage controversy. As a white man, I’d be a hypocrite if I said I resented her for making those claims. I grew up on family lore that we had some Cherokee ancestry— as it turns out, that ancestry was actually Sub-Saharan African— at least she actually can honestly claim this ancestry. This is a very common American story, and although I recognize it is painful for Native Americans it is not something I can hold against Elizabeth Warren because if I was a person of her generation I probably would have made those same mistakes. But I am worried that other people will not come to the same conclusion as I. But on the other hand, if you’re a Trump voter who for whatever reason is now on the fence, would this stain on Warren’s record offend you at all? I don’t think so.
Mayor Pete is hugely inspiring to me. I may be a young gay man, but I still never believed I would see an openly gay man run for President so soon in my lifetime— and actually have a chance at snagging the nomination. I admire him a lot for his intelligence and respect his military service. On stage, it seems like he might be a great counterbalance to Trump— he represents a different kind of masculinity. But I don’t like that he doesn’t have many documented positions. I’m also worried that the reason I’d be inspired to vote for him would be the reason many people would abstain. I like Mayor Pete and I’m interested in his progress. I’m not sure this is his year for the presidency, but perhaps in a few more cycles.
As for the other nominees, they don’t interest me as much or have positions I don’t embrace. But absolutely anything can change between now and the primaries, and I’m especially looking forward to the debates this week. At the end of the day, I would vote for any Dem over Donald Trump and I’m excited to see dignity, decorum, and a respect for our rights, norms, and customs return to the White House. We just have to win.